The following estimated populations were determined by the Texas A&M Center for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research:

The Projection Scenarios

Three projection scenarios which produce three alternative sets of population values for the State and each county are presented in these projections. These scenarios assume the same set of mortality and fertility assumptions in each scenario but differ in their assumptions relative to net migration. The net migration assumptions made for three scenarios are derived from 1990-2000 patterns which have been altered relative to expected future population trends. This is done by systematically and uniformly altering the adjusted (as noted above) 1990-2000 net migration rates by age, sex and race/ethnicity. The scenarios so produced are referred to as the zero migration (0.0) scenario, the one-half 1990-2000 (0.5) scenario, and the 1990-2000 (1.0) scenario.

The Zero Migration (0.0) Scenario

The zero scenario is a scenario which assumes that inmigration and outmigration are equal (i.e., net migration is zero) resulting in growth only through natural increase (the excess or deficit of births relative to deaths). This scenario is commonly used as a base in population projections and is useful in indicating what an area's indigenous growth (growth due only to natural increase) will be over time. In general, this scenario produces the lowest population projection for counties with historical patterns of population growth through net inmigration and the highest population projection for counties with historical patterns of population decline through net outmigration.

The One-Half 1990-2000 Migration (0.5) Scenario

This scenario has been prepared as an approximate average of the zero (0.0) and 1990-2000 (1.0) scenarios. It assumes rates of net migration one-half of those of the 1990s. The reason for including this scenario is that many counties in the State are unlikely to continue to experience the overall levels of relative extensive growth of the 1990s. A scenario which projects rates of population growth that are approximately an average of the zero and the 1990-2000 scenarios is one that suggests slower than 1990-2000 but steady growth.

The 1990-2000 Migration (1.0) Scenario

The 1990-2000 scenario assumes that the trends in the age, sex and race/ethnicity net migration rates of the 1990s will characterize those occurring in the future of Texas. The 1990s was a period characterized by rapid growth. It is seen here as the high growth alternative because its overall total decade pattern is one of substantial growth (i.e., 22.8% for the 1990-2000 decade for the State). Because growth was so extensive during the 1990s it is likely to be unsustainable over time and thus this scenario is presented here as a high growth alternative. For counties that experienced net outmigration during the 1990s, this scenario produces continued decline.

 

Texas State Data Center Population Projections 2005-2040

 

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